Thursday, October 19, 2006

Publication date for my new novel

I hate uncertainty in life and have therefore decided to apply sophisticated econometric modelling methods to calculate when my new novel, A Half Life of One, for which I am currently seeking an agent, will be published.

The world of statistical modelling has come on a long way since Bishop Ussher, Archbishop of Armagh, Primate of All Ireland and Vice-Chancellor of Trinity College, Dublin calculated that the world was created in 4004 B.C. So far, in fact, that some Creationists now think that this date is too distant.

The econometric model I have adopted is one using non-linear regression analysis utilising simultaneous equation methods which are able to handle the large number of variables involved. It is assumed that both the data and the regression error components are normally distributed.

The econometric equation takes the form:

Y= f(C,O) + (AB_EFb) – (GH + error) – D~G…………..+7M

Where Y = Date of Publication and the following (weighted) variables apply:

A = Number of agents to which the Mss is submitted
B = Number of agents who reject the Mss
C = Number of agents who have previously rejected the Mss
D = Literacy growth rate in China
E = Decline in literacy standards in the West
F = Length of time each agent takes to respond
G = Chance of cataclysmic meltdown in major financial markets
H = Number of re-writes of original Mss
I = Average attention span of agent’s intern/reader
J = Height of the average Slush Pile, adjusted for weight
K = Number of form rejection letters minus handwritten responses
L = Number of agents who actually read the submission
M = Number of publishing companies owned by Rupert Murdoch
N = Growth of Myspace, YouTube and similar non-literary sites
O = Share of new books published by “Celebrities”
P = Number of personal contacts in the publishing industry
Q = World War Three

Applying the formula we arrive at a publication date of 21st March 2021. This is actually a Sunday. However, Monday, 22nd March 2021 is within the standard deviation of the model and is therefore the forecast Publication Date with a variance of + or – 3%. Within the constraints of the existing model it is not possible to predict either the time or place of the publication.

To pre-order your copy of the novel at a 5% discount please e-mail me right away.

17 comments:

  1. Daddy5:04 pm

    I love it!!! The econometric formula is a wonderment, and something all writers should purchase stock in. Does it, I wonder, apply in theological situations, too? I mean, could we predict the Second Advent, along with the stock market?

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  2. We could indeed predict the Second Advent, although the stock market might be harder. We would need to adapt the model of course, but this would only take a couple of days.

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  3. There's an error in your formula - You need to wrap the whole lot in brackets and then take away ((RxS)+ (TxV))

    Where
    R = the number of regular Readers of your blog
    S = average daily site Stats over a one month period starting from the day you realise your true voice (see below)
    T = units of Trust in your own abilities as a writer on a scale of 1 to 100
    V = the magnitude of your true Voice

    These value of these variables are all determined by you, so I can't give you an exact date

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  4. Hm, that's true, Skint, how stupid of me. I've re-computed the calculation and the book will actually be published on the Wednesday. Thanks for your help.

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  5. Anonymous10:00 pm

    Pund, you're a genius, although a Saturday would be more convenient.
    Daddy, what do you mean? This IS the second coming, tis the dawn of a new age, the Age of Pund, Pundyism.....I'm mailing!

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  6. Yeah, yeah, Minx. Now you know when it'll be published just put your money where your mouth is and order a copy.

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  7. I've always thought econometrics a crapshoot at best, even with tightly defined variables. We're guessing here, OK?

    2008. Third Tuesday in September.

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  8. Just as long as we get to hold a blogmoot at your launch ...

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  9. Anonymous1:59 pm

    Fantastic equation pundy, but I'm afraid you've all missed one important factor. The whole equation needs to be divided by
    W = how enjoyable the book is to read.
    In this instance, by my calculations, it would be W to the power of 10. Giving an EDP (Expected Date of Publishing) of 7.30pm, July 10th 2007.

    I'll be expecting my copy on that date!

    Bloody good read by the way!

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  10. Of curse, the whole thing could be accelerated if you put in a deaf psychic lesbian detective, hot on the trail...

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  11. Daddy3:36 pm

    The deaf psychic lesbian would definitely introduce another variable into the econometric formula -- that of the Heisenberg Principle, which states that the act of measuring alters the measurement. The thing could be published next week!

    Of course, I'd rather just predict the stock market with it, make a quadrillion dollars, open my own publishing house, and sign you up for life, or a half-life of one, at least.

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  12. Anonymous8:59 pm

    Umm, could you just make that a hearing impaired, dimensionaly challenged mono lover, then all will right right in PC World

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  13. Yeah, whatever that means...

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  14. Anonymous9:57 pm

    Okay, stop moaning, poor quality commenting! I was rushing out to pick up the feckers from the cinema - right, right?

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  15. Anonymous6:08 am

    The housing market as the bubble popped and is my home no longer worth what I have in it.I know my monthly payment is way to high.Anyone else feel this way ?homes

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  16. Anonymous8:16 am

    And you think I write rubbish? homes.

    ReplyDelete