I hate uncertainty in life and have therefore decided to apply sophisticated econometric modelling methods to calculate when my new novel, A Half Life of One, for which I am currently seeking an agent, will be published.
The world of statistical modelling has come on a long way since Bishop Ussher, Archbishop of Armagh, Primate of All Ireland and Vice-Chancellor of Trinity College, Dublin calculated that the world was created in 4004 B.C. So far, in fact, that some Creationists now think that this date is too distant.
The econometric model I have adopted is one using non-linear regression analysis utilising simultaneous equation methods which are able to handle the large number of variables involved. It is assumed that both the data and the regression error components are normally distributed.
The econometric equation takes the form:
Y= f(C,O) + (AB_EFb) – (GH + error) – D~G…………..+7M
Where Y = Date of Publication and the following (weighted) variables apply:
A = Number of agents to which the Mss is submitted
B = Number of agents who reject the Mss
C = Number of agents who have previously rejected the Mss
D = Literacy growth rate in China
E = Decline in literacy standards in the West
F = Length of time each agent takes to respond
G = Chance of cataclysmic meltdown in major financial markets
H = Number of re-writes of original Mss
I = Average attention span of agent’s intern/reader
J = Height of the average Slush Pile, adjusted for weight
K = Number of form rejection letters minus handwritten responses
L = Number of agents who actually read the submission
M = Number of publishing companies owned by Rupert Murdoch
N = Growth of Myspace, YouTube and similar non-literary sites
O = Share of new books published by “Celebrities”
P = Number of personal contacts in the publishing industry
Q = World War Three
Applying the formula we arrive at a publication date of 21st March 2021. This is actually a Sunday. However, Monday, 22nd March 2021 is within the standard deviation of the model and is therefore the forecast Publication Date with a variance of + or – 3%. Within the constraints of the existing model it is not possible to predict either the time or place of the publication.
To pre-order your copy of the novel at a 5% discount please e-mail me right away.